OPEC agrees modest hike in oil supply after Saudi and Iran compromise


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had announced an OPEC-only production agreement on Friday, also without clear output targets.

This week's OPEC talks in Vienna have been the most politically charged in years.

The production limits by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation since 2016 have helped increase oil prices, with the benchmark US crude contract hitting its highest level in more than three years in May. In reality, ministers said several countries are unable to pump more so the real output boost would have been smaller - ranging from Iran's 500,000 barrel-a-day estimate up to Iraq's prediction for as much as 800,000.

Returning to Friday's output agreement, the official communique was a classic piece of OPEC-speak - short on figures and something that everyone could claim as a victory. That means the country has little to gain from a deal to raise OPEC output, unlike top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.

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The 24 nations in the supply-cat pact, known as OPEC+, agreed in late 2016 to trim production by 1.8 million barrels a day but they have actually been keeping some 2.8 million barrels per day off the market. This not only adversely impacts one of OPEC's largest member's upstream activities, further weighing output levels lower by 600,000 bpd, but also lead to the retraction of production volumes half amounting to nearly half of OPEC's agreed total reduction of 1.2 mbpd.

State oil company Saudi Aramco had anticipated this week's decision and was already ramping up output, Al-Falih said.

"Hope OPEC will increase output substantially", Trump said on Twitter.

Production levels from participating members put compliance at more than 100 percent, though some of that is attributed to Venezuela.

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Importantly, the 100 per cent compliance target is for the group as a whole, not for individual members. USA officials have asked Japan to completely halt oil imports from Iran, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

"I think there is a risk, a non-trivial risk, of oil prices really spiking in the next twelve months", he said. This should reduce recent supply restrictions in the face of growing global consumption levels. -China trade battle start taking their toll.

Saturday's accord, in which non-OPEC countries ratified the previous day's deal, dropped the pledge that the 1 million barrel-a-day increase should be shared proportionally among members, opening the way for the full volume to flow, Al-Falih said.

In other words, the current USA five-year oil stock averages stand at nearly 30 percent above the five-year averages prior to 2013. This, alongside forecasted global economic growth of 3.8 percent (Year-on-Year), should see markets, at worse, move sideways around the current 2014 highs or slightly lower.

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